Os objetivos deste trabalho foram estimar os parâmetros de adaptabilidade e estabilidade em populações de milho-pipoca relacionadas por ciclos de seleção, inferir sobre a eficiência dos métodos de seleção pelos quais as populações foram obtidas e avaliar os efeitos da seleção sobre os parâmetros de adaptabilidade e estabilidade. Vinte e cinco populações e três testemunhas comerciais foram avaliadas em 14 ensaios realizados nos anos agrícolas de 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2006/2007, 2008/2009 e 2009/2010, em sete locais. Utilizou-se o delineamento experimental de blocos completos ao acaso, com quatro repetições. Foram analisadas a capacidade de expansão, avaliada em forno de microondas e na pipocadora Metric Weight Volume Tester (MWVT), além da produtividade de grãos. Utilizou-se o método de adaptabilidade e estabilidade de Eberhart & Russell. Em geral, as populações base e melhoradas apresentaram previsibilidade de comportamento em resposta às variações de ambiente. A seleção pode provocar mudanças nos padrões de adaptabilidade e estabilidade, e as diferentes estratégias de seleção empregadas na obtenção das populações apresentaram eficiências semelhantes

The objectives of this work were to estimate the adaptability and stability parameters of popcorn populations related through cycles of selection, to infer about the efficiency of the selection methods by which the populations were obtained and to assess the effects of selection on the parameters of adaptability and stability. Twenty-five populations and three commercial controls were evaluated in 14 trials carried out in the 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2006/2007, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 growing seasons, in seven locations. The experimental design used was randomized complete blocks with four replicates. The expansion volume, evaluated in a microwave oven and in the Metric Weight Volume Tester (MWVT), as well as grain yield were analyzed. The Eberhart & Russell adaptability and stability method was used. In general the initial and improved populations showed predictable performance in response to changes in the environment. Selection can cause changes in the adaptability and stability patterns, and the different selection strategies performed in order to obtain the populations showed similar efficiencies

The prediction of gains from selection allows the comparison of breeding methods and selection strategies, although these estimates may be biased. The objective of this study was to investigate the extent of such bias in predicting genetic gain. For this, we simulated 10 cycles of a hypothetical breeding program that involved seven traits, three population classes, three experimental conditions and two breeding methods (mass and half-sib selection). Each combination of trait, population, heritability, method and cycle was repeated 10 times. The predicted gains were biased, even when the genetic parameters were estimated without error. Gain from selection in both genders is twice the gain from selection in a single gender only in the absence of dominance. The use of genotypic variance or broad sense heritability in the predictions represented an additional source of bias. Predictions based on additive variance and narrow sense heritability were equivalent, as were predictions based on genotypic variance and broad sense heritability. The predictions based on mass and family selection were suitable for comparing selection strategies, whereas those based on selection within progenies showed the largest bias and lower association with the realized gain.